Just One Month's Gas Supply From 14 Years of Licensing by Previous Government

The oil crisis caused by the conflict in the Gulf has led to intense lobbying for more drilling in the North Sea, including calls to overturn the government’s ban on new licensing. New research shows this to be a false solution to the current crisis.

In brief‍

New research by energy consultancy Voar and Uplift shows that new oil and gas discoveries licensed over 14 years by the previous UK government have to date produced just over one month’s worth of gas. 

• The research strongly suggests that issuing new North Sea licences will do little to boost energy security and reduce the UK’s reliance on gas imports. 

• In addition, despite claims to the contrary, new drilling in the North Sea will do nothing to lower UK energy bills, a fact that even the oil and gas industry concedes. 

Previous government efforts to ‘max out’ the North Sea deliver just 36 days of gas. ‍

New research by the energy consultancy Voar and Uplift shows that new oil and gas discoveries licensed over 14 years by the previous UK government have to date produced just over one month’s worth of gas. 

The research shows:

• From 2010-2024, the previous Conservative government handed out hundreds of new North Sea oil and gas licences across seven licensing rounds, which will lead to just 20 new and re-licenced fields. 

• These 20 developments have the potential to produce – in total, over their lifetime – less than six months of UK gas demand and less than eight months of oil.

•To date, they have produced the equivalent of just 36 days of extra gas. They have also produced just over two months (64 days) of oil, however, most UK oil is exported. 

Separately, official data shows that new drilling will have little impact on the UK’s dependency on imported gas, due to the decline of the North Sea. In short, after 50 years of drilling, we have already burned most of the gas. Most of what’s left is now oil, around 80% of which is exported.

According to the oil and gas regulator’s official projections, based on expected development activity, the UK’s reliance on imported gas is set to rise from 55 percent today to more than two-thirds dependent by 2030, and over 90 percent dependent on gas imports by 2050 – even if new North Sea fields are developed.‍

Jackdaw, one of the biggest undeveloped gas fields, would only reduce our annual gas import dependency by just 2 percent on average; and the controversial Rosebank field, whose reserves are primarily oil destined for export, has the potential to reduce annual gas import dependency by just 1 percent on average.  

The North Sea is an ultra-mature basin where production has been falling for decades, with most of the oil and gas it once contained now already extracted. Last year, the Labour government fulfilled its manifesto commitment to end new oil and gas licenses to explore for new fields, while allowing limited ‘tiebacks’ to extend the life of existing fields. It also set out the UK’s first ever plan for the future of the North Sea, with the dual aim of tackling climate change and ensuring the growth in renewable energy delivers long-term jobs and investment into communities still tied to oil and gas. 

The route to greater energy security - and lower bills - is to expand renewable energy and get off gas.  But hoping that new licences are a solution is a pipedream.
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Methodology

** The analysis was conducted in November 2025 by Voar and Uplift. A previous version of this analysis was conducted in October 2023.

UK offshore oil and gas licences awarded under the Conservative-led governments between 2010 and 2024 (licensing rounds 27-33 inclusive) were reviewed to determine which progressed to approved projects and production. 

Historic and forecast production data from 2000 onward were analysed to identify long-term trends and to calculate how much of the UK’s oil and gas demand has been, and is expected to be, met by fields originating from these post-2010 licences through to 2050. 

The analysis used official North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) datasets, information from Rystad and publicly available sources, such as company announcements and media reports. Oil refers to crude oil, NGL, and gas condensate; gas refers to natural gas. 

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