New North Sea oil and gas fields incompatible with Paris climate goals

Opening any new North Sea oil and gas fields is incompatible with achieving the international goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, which the UK signed up to in the Paris Agreement. 

This is the stark finding of a group of academics at UCL who have analysed the latest scientific evidence and literature on the climate implications of new oil and gas drilling. 

Their conclusion means that the UK government must deliver its pledge to end new North Sea licensing and reject the controversial Rosebank and Jackdaw developments, if it is to honour its climate commitments. 

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No room for new UK oil and gas fields

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The new report makes clear that the world already has plans to extract more oil and gas than is safe to burn and that most remaining reserves must stay in the ground if we want to maintain a liveable climate. Studies show that it is possible to meet society’s energy needs without opening new oil and gas fields, through for example, expanding renewable energy.

Drawing on the authors' recent peer-reviewed research papers published in leading academic journals including Science and Nature, as well as the latest scientific evidence, peer-reviewed studies, reports and datasets, they calculate that emissions from burning the reserves in existing oil and gas fields would far exceed the remaining global carbon budget for 1.5°C, and that developing any new oil and gas fields – in the UK or elsewhere – would push the world further into dangerous climate territory.

To maintain a liveable climate will require that some existing oil and gas fields around the world stop production early. Opening new fields would mean even more of these projects need to shut down early. As the report outlines, it is much easier to stop the development of new fields than it is to close existing fields, with significant economic, political and legal barriers to shutting fields before the end of their economic life. 

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Critical importance of UK climate leadership

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The need for governments to act is urgent. Last year, global temperatures passed the critical 1.5°C temperature limit for the first time. The Paris Agreement set the global goal to limit long-term warming to below 1.5°C to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.

This current rise in temperatures is already leading to serious impacts around the world, with more extreme weather now hitting the UK too. These include more destructive storms and increased flooding, costing the country billions in clean up costs, as well as record wildfires in Scotland and a lack of rain, which is now impacting UK food production. 

With the case for action now overwhelming, this Labour government must fulfill its climate commitments under the Paris Agreement by delivering its pledge to stop new licensing, and reject proposals to develop new fields, including Rosebank and Jackdaw. 

This is a moment for the UK to inspire other countries to act too. A decade on from the Paris Agreement, governments around the world are currently updating their climate plans for the next five years, which will determine their level of ambition. 

A clear signal from the UK that it is stopping new oil and gas drilling – that it has the courage, finally, to address one of the primary drivers of climate change – would give hope and encouragement to other governments to go further and faster in tackling the crisis. 

The UK government must not knowingly breach its international climate commitments at such a critical time. Now, more than ever, it must honor them and lead others to do the same. 

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Full report: Greg Muttitt, Dr Fergus Green and Professor Steve Pye, The Climate Implications of New Oil and Gas Fields in the UK—An Overview of the Evidence, June 2025, UCL Policy Lab, UCL Energy Institute, and UCL Department of Political Science.

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